The EORTC risk calculator produces two separate scores: a recurrence score (0-17 points) and a progression score (0-23 points). Each score maps to estimated probabilities at 1 year and 5 years. For recurrence, low-risk patients (score 0) have approximately a 15% 1-year and 31% 5-year recurrence rate, while high-risk patients (score 10-17) face roughly 61% and 78% rates, respectively. For progression, low-risk patients (score 0) have less than 1% 1-year and under 1% 5-year progression risk, whereas high-risk patients (score 7-23) may face 17% and 45% progression rates.

Progression to muscle-invasive disease (T2 or higher) is the more clinically consequential outcome, as it may necessitate radical cystectomy. Your scores should be interpreted together with pathology findings and discussed with your urologist to determine the appropriate surveillance schedule and whether adjuvant intravesical therapy (BCG or chemotherapy) is indicated.

Use this calculator after transurethral resection of bladder tumor (TURBT) when pathology confirms non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (stages Ta or T1, with or without CIS). It is designed to guide clinical decisions about surveillance cystoscopy frequency, the need for intravesical therapy (BCG induction and maintenance vs. intravesical chemotherapy), and whether early radical cystectomy should be considered for very high-risk patients.

The tool is most appropriate in the outpatient urology setting during post-TURBT treatment planning. It is also useful for patient counseling, helping individuals understand their risk category and why certain surveillance and treatment intensities are recommended by guidelines such as EAU and AUA/BCAN.

The EORTC risk tables were derived from pooled data of 2,596 patients from seven EORTC trials, most of whom did not receive BCG maintenance therapy. As a result, the tables may overestimate recurrence and progression risk in patients who receive modern BCG protocols with maintenance. The updated CUETO scoring model may be more appropriate for BCG-treated patients.

The calculator does not incorporate re-resection findings, which are now standard of care for T1 and high-grade tumors. It also does not account for molecular markers, variant histology (micropapillary, nested, plasmacytoid), lymphovascular invasion, or the depth of lamina propria invasion — all of which significantly influence prognosis. For the most accurate risk stratification, the EORTC score should be considered alongside these pathologic features and the emerging EAU 2021 risk group classification.